Freight Volumes Fall in 2026: Spot vs. Contract Trucking Rates

Freight volumes fell sharply in August 2026, yet some trucking rates improved. A closer look at the numbers reveals why fewer loads don't necessarily mean lower rates across every segment of the freight market.

The American trucking market is sending mixed signals as freight volumes decline while contract rates continue to rise.

According to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition, produced in partnership with DAT Freight & Analytics and released October 1, 2026, dry van contract rates improved through August even as the number of loads being moved continued to fall.

The report highlights an important distinction for trucking companies, owner-operators, and professional drivers:

Higher freight rates do not necessarily mean the freight market is getting stronger.

In some cases, rates can increase while the actual amount of freight being transported declines.

Freight Volumes Continue to Decline

The U.S. Bank and DAT report found that contract freight load counts were down approximately 27.7% in August 2026 compared with August 2025.

The decline reflects continued weakness in freight activity despite improvements in certain pricing indicators.

The report also documented month-over-month declines in both contract and spot freight activity.

From July to August:

Spot freight load counts declined approximately 3.2%.
Contract freight load counts declined approximately 1.3%.
Contract freight volumes remained nearly 28% below their year-earlier level.

These figures describe the freight activity measured by the report, not every shipment moved throughout the United States.

Nevertheless, they provide a useful indication of the conditions facing carriers competing for available freight.

Contract Rates Rise While Spot Rates Fall

One of the most notable findings is the growing difference between contract freight rates and spot market rates.

The report tracked the following average dry van linehaul rates:

| Month | Spot Linehaul | Contract Linehaul | |---|---|---| | June 2026 | $2.38 per mile | $2.30 per mile | | July 2026 | $2.35 per mile | $2.38 per mile | | August 2026 | $2.17 per mile | $2.39 per mile |

In June, spot market rates were approximately eight cents per mile higher than contract rates.

By August, the relationship had reversed.

Contract rates were approximately 22 cents per mile higher than spot rates.

This is a significant change over just three months.

It is also important to understand that these figures represent linehaul rates, excluding fuel surcharges. They are not the complete amount necessarily paid or received for every load.

Actual freight rates vary by equipment type, lane, customer, market conditions, and individual agreements.

Why Would Contract Rates Increase When Freight Volumes Are Falling?

At first glance, the numbers may seem contradictory.

If fewer loads are moving, why would some freight rates increase?

Part of the explanation involves the difference between freight demand and available trucking capacity.

Contract freight generally involves negotiated arrangements between shippers, brokers, and carriers.

These agreements may provide more predictable transportation capacity and pricing than the spot market.

Spot freight, on the other hand, is typically arranged for individual loads or shorter-term transportation needs.

When freight demand weakens, the spot market can react quickly as carriers compete for available loads.

Contract pricing may respond differently because it reflects longer-term agreements, negotiated capacity commitments, and pricing adjustments that occur over time.

Another factor is the number of trucking companies and trucks available to move freight.

If carriers leave the market or reduce capacity faster than freight demand declines, the remaining available capacity can become more valuable even while overall shipment volumes remain weak.

The result can be a market where some rates increase without a corresponding increase in freight activity.

Fuel Costs Complicate the Picture

Fuel expenses are another important part of the freight-rate equation.

According to the U.S. Bank and DAT report, the average fuel surcharge increased from approximately 62 cents per mile in July to 70 cents per mile in August.

That increase affected the total cost of transportation even as spot linehaul rates declined.

When fuel was included, the report showed August average dry van rates of approximately:

$2.87 per mile for spot freight
$3.09 per mile for contract freight

Those figures demonstrate why comparing freight rates without separating linehaul revenue from fuel can produce a misleading picture.

A higher total rate may reflect increased fuel costs rather than improved compensation for moving the freight.

For trucking businesses, the relevant financial question is how much revenue remains after fuel and other operating expenses are paid.

What Does This Mean for Owner-Operators?

For independent owner-operators, the difference between gross revenue and actual operating income remains critical.

A load paying more per mile does not automatically produce a higher profit.

Fuel, maintenance, tires, insurance, equipment payments, tolls, and other operating expenses must still be covered.

For example, a 1,000-mile load paying $2.17 per mile in linehaul revenue would generate $2,170 before any separately paid fuel surcharge or additional compensation.

A comparable load paying $2.39 per mile would generate $2,390 in linehaul revenue.

That represents a $220 difference.

But the comparison does not establish which load would produce a better financial result without considering the carrier's actual operating costs, fuel arrangements, deadhead miles, and other conditions.

The market data also does not mean every independent owner-operator can obtain the reported national average.

Rates vary considerably by location and type of freight.

What Does This Mean for Company Drivers?

Company drivers may not negotiate freight rates directly, but market conditions can still affect their working environment.

When freight volumes decline, some carriers may experience changes in load availability, equipment utilization, dispatch patterns, or miles offered to drivers.

However, national freight-market data cannot predict the experience of an individual driver.

A company operating under established customer contracts may experience different conditions than a carrier relying heavily on spot freight.

Regional demand, equipment type, customer relationships, and freight specialization can all influence how much work is available.

Drivers should therefore be cautious about treating a national freight-rate increase as proof that freight opportunities are improving everywhere.

Why Freight Volume Matters as Much as Rates

A trucking company does not generate revenue simply because freight rates are higher.

It must have freight to haul.

Consider two hypothetical operating situations:

A truck averaging 2,500 loaded miles per week at $2.00 per mile generates $5,000 in linehaul revenue.

A truck averaging only 1,800 loaded miles at $2.20 per mile generates $3,960.

Even though the second truck receives a higher rate per mile, it generates $1,040 less weekly linehaul revenue.

These are illustrative calculations, not figures from the U.S. Bank and DAT report.

They demonstrate why evaluating the freight market requires looking at both pricing and the amount of freight being moved.

A higher rate per mile does not guarantee higher weekly revenue when the number of revenue-producing miles declines.

Are Higher Contract Rates a Sign of Recovery?

Improving contract rates may indicate that certain shippers are willing to pay more to secure dependable trucking capacity.

But the latest figures do not establish a broad freight-market recovery.

The sharp year-over-year decline in contract load counts suggests demand remains under pressure.

At the same time, the decline in spot rates from June through August shows that not every segment of the market is experiencing stronger pricing.

The U.S. Bank and DAT findings point to a freight market undergoing adjustments in both demand and available capacity.

Until shipment volumes stabilize, improvements in certain freight rates should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of stronger overall market conditions.

The Bottom Line

The latest freight-market numbers tell two different stories.

Contract dry van rates increased through August, while spot linehaul rates declined.

Meanwhile, contract freight load counts remained substantially below their year-earlier level.

For carriers and owner-operators, the distinction matters because higher rates do not necessarily translate into higher revenue or better profitability.

For company drivers, the figures reinforce why national market headlines may not match what is happening with available loads and miles at an individual carrier.

The trucking industry needs more than improved freight rates to demonstrate a sustained recovery.

It also needs sufficient freight demand to keep equipment moving and generate revenue that can support operating expenses.

In trucking, the rate on the load matters. But so does having enough loads to haul.

Truck Stop Talk with Sarge™ will continue following freight-market developments and reporting what the numbers mean for professional drivers and the businesses that depend on them.

Real Trucking. Real Answers. No Bull.™

Freight Volumes Decline While Trucking Rates Send Mixed Signals: What the Numbers Reveal